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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。
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GM Overview" B8 \( V# @& N; ?+ T
• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs5 z& S* g# e9 w3 v4 a/ l$ B, r
• Objectives
# Y8 S7 @* _( q) K H– What do we “WANT” to do?
V& s0 @/ d$ E3 u2 T: S ]• External Analysis
. G, M+ @2 l; q4 s( J; b– What do we “NEED” to do?
9 t3 r {0 m3 P9 n* R– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade% G- L" ^2 E+ y
• opportunities & threats3 x& z- o1 z# j; Q v
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs
6 W$ k6 K& A8 I- }" o* m- P• Internal Analysis
: s7 S5 T- ~, |2 u/ A5 y– What “CAN” we do?: |6 n/ k2 C! m
– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR
. m$ v, W; j) f2 }& |• abilities, strengths & weaknesses. e* ?/ W; j/ ?9 o* Y' E3 I4 W% G
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES
0 o2 H: u/ _* E' S+ }
/ K$ z" `2 D( T0 A' ^• Alternative Evaluation
6 [' K& n9 ] z6 L. y– What are the options?
5 S2 ~% M6 \; ?2 R2 v# G$ o$ _– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options
) G) ]; I5 A- k ]0 h- z* P5 ]" q– How does this option “FIT”?+ Y4 ?0 V& h9 }+ g$ Y
– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)
$ T! K+ ^( Z- Z' U8 s5 x4 X$ ~7 j/ R– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”) % w D3 ?6 y. X9 x0 p& p/ Q
9 c6 L+ L0 f0 ^$ K; `% V
• Decision
1 _1 a1 {* }, u6 O– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).$ r4 ]0 _- `0 _$ l
– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING+ `: X3 P+ w# Q/ ^9 o+ v% t
• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?
" C/ @# H4 D0 I1 k• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?
( M6 Z* ?& p; F8 `$ ?+ T• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?
" b$ {9 r! T8 c, X• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)
. i& W9 j$ ^; d1 |$ {: T* N% h• Why NOT the other options?
: e* f4 r$ W, y6 h• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes# |" k3 X1 l+ F8 G
need to be made?
! g6 C* H' {$ u" C" ~6 d9 h8 ~; x6 Q. ?& `' F3 z
• Action Plan) i, `: G, d t1 L' z& F; o
• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;
4 b( n* B) M8 J% i% u– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your3 }0 D8 q5 b: ?6 ]5 ~/ J$ Y$ L
decision
1 E5 ]! a3 ^! r. D0 o– details about timing
* ^3 ^/ `0 _7 e– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’
" F& y) X- z0 R) L0 f– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)
9 x# K* q" h5 B8 l, b* z# I– make sure to consider both the short term and long term
4 w+ o- g7 m2 Z1 D. r8 t
$ C, t5 @* d; f/ nFirm Valuation
+ W# I7 @! {0 {( B* a/ n• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.+ v, r) P$ _9 w4 [
• 3 methods of valuing a firm;7 C3 |6 u0 K9 b0 A0 o0 I5 Y3 z
– Net Book Value
, {" x" k5 s; S% ~– Economic Appraisal6 s4 }! Q6 T: T% m7 n# F4 u
– Capitalization of Earnings( q% H, z6 V1 }
• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the
7 t; G7 W% k/ N. ?0 c) a; t( Wcompany is worth.
8 p2 H i- }2 @% B6 D• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???8 c- a! X {- ^
* G- b, F; K2 ~$ G# {$ ^
Net Book Value (NBV)" T; x# z: X/ `9 O( }
– Total Assets - Total Liabilities
: A5 P8 K& U# w7 O& l+ S• a.k.a.. the equity \, Z1 j, Z# o6 N
– Does not account for the present market value of the assets
0 r! M& d6 `3 r& K( g+ p– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet
1 W9 m; K( b! p8 v4 C ~( Q; i– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business
, w; v# x: e# ?6 ~3 i+ e
3 k0 ?0 ~3 B2 ]6 W$ z7 q( U Economic Appraisal (EA)$ \' V; E+ z/ ?5 |# t
– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets* H: ~ W) E, b( [- P; G0 x
– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities
7 k7 h4 [' i/ }* C' s– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets
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) e1 d4 w. {; u: o Capitalization of Earnings (CE)
* H; o& M9 m8 ]0 t1 c/ _– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S' L0 a$ [1 y( S. U% g& y+ [
• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide./ ^( e+ q9 L9 x9 v1 {, b0 a
– NPAT * P/E ratio = value' {% v4 r; {2 P F
– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)/ ^' r9 p( ^5 D# J/ z
• Assuming changes (projected statement)6 v. S3 T- i- ]
• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)
J7 Q: v+ Y- B0 Z2 U; [& B$ [– Select a reasonable P/E multiple
- H1 e- ` `# K& R6 l6 c– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)
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8 b `: N2 s' R! v Z5 `5 F* O9 E5 @% ?# D: b• P/E Multiple
/ s" f5 @4 {2 f$ u– Rules of thumb;
% D2 z7 d9 @, d/ q• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples9 w" L. p, x. G$ t* b
from 5 to 15. T, Z( C1 q; Z
• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.
7 {8 C% u9 O% T0 w5 D• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”9 |7 D% U1 ~# Z; k5 z2 V1 _% P Q' G
– growth increases a multiple! W- ~+ y7 Z) o! A0 F( ~) m
– risk decreases a multiple7 A5 J+ E0 }4 u2 G4 Q
+ z4 Z0 f2 v" x; QTheir Associated Ratios# T0 y: {* |$ n( ]
• Profitability;# Y: K, |2 y2 x
– Business goal - to make $$
/ e0 t* z; x1 D* m. g– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales5 o+ z n9 d# U
• Stability;
) E4 _" I5 o1 F: r– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)+ w4 U; E2 {2 t% G! v
– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts& p! s) S! {9 E5 t
1 F% O3 D+ e3 v, c% T; Y5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios
' ~9 j @6 i% I2 v • Liquidity;
9 i/ Q, ?% i# l$ y m! ~+ }, z* d– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations( h6 d- q& C% w% z/ j7 L
– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm
7 v* p4 u" i0 U4 T) F, D/ e: J0 ], Iobligations)
/ P& J. L0 j7 e+ h; P+ l) R• Efficiency;& X9 Q4 ]- Y( Z4 f2 I. v1 T: y9 O
– Business goal - to efficiently use assets
* V$ A A K1 U6 s2 `* D: R– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments
% v- l* X2 b; S" x) C
4 K# r# \* _8 _+ k% U5 P% g• Growth;
) T8 e! X, e: h8 x– Business goal - to increase in size
! s: r$ |) t1 U) D2 Q– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth) v) H- ]+ m, c: u1 z8 [& V3 }
( v& \" O/ g& o3 \3 JInterpreting the Ratios8 n/ Y- [2 z! f
• Profitability;5 D7 U8 a6 k" c$ R8 c
– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)
, [6 n- M3 N: [% w2 oI/S items * 100 = % $ C, f$ A% X# ]8 Z- U5 m
Sales% Q i1 F% D4 J
• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales, U" \, p& C3 y, C' [% B, E
– Return on Investment/Equity
7 W4 k9 H, B2 p9 i+ A* O( }( LProfit ATB4D = %
+ @8 i' L& I4 g0 p1 s5 l. hAverage Equity: C H8 P3 E; _5 z
[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2]8 f) r" \$ }- Z& J1 p
• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners
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• Stability;) G& D- E5 v% o) s
– Net Worth: Total Assets
+ j! G% }$ M" }! _7 A# oTotal Equity = % ( i$ L4 S7 \/ |* D5 W
Total Assets, z; }1 x; v% x2 `& E
• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money/ |6 E& D2 U/ a" W
– Debt to Assets# ~* k0 `" E9 @5 P' N
Total Debt = % 9 e! g. Q5 U' r9 @/ ~
Total Assets( E+ w' y. @. R2 R3 e9 D
• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt8 s4 v. q; i& j5 |5 {5 I
– Interest Coverage
- s; [4 \( Q7 t) m, p0 c' C; L EBIT = # times, x: e5 n$ x" I) i
Interest Expense9 E- z1 Y( q4 f# i- y0 j, W& E$ H3 ?4 M
• tells us how many times we can pay interest
* \% y( y. z0 K! t: I( p1 J2 Q. b* q, R
• Liquidity;3 z/ v: U) S; j" S+ s
– Current Ratio
+ g% F1 k7 ^! }1 a m, mCurrent Assets = X:1( \; I- C m3 c" A: |
Current Liabilities) B I* r" h3 s/ d4 R# e
• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts
3 m% {( Y- x3 W7 ?0 E. FRULE OF THUMB: 2:1
- t! a7 l. O+ D# `– Acid Test# _! H# U8 O, b Z$ d
Cash + M/S + A/R = X:1$ p! `' L* D/ O& H7 q( L
Current Liabilities
% b5 ]/ A& T$ R# ~; v" K& [• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us
3 A% _ a7 }4 ?( S/ F1 m) s8 ]RULE OF THUMB: 1:1% k/ X7 k: d1 H/ @* H4 b- m5 r
/ l6 h7 {$ E$ |0 G) ~– Working Capital
5 Q3 H* l y: d1 @/ L @. ^C.A - C.L = $X! d5 E6 t/ q/ Q, K4 ]/ Z/ v
• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid4 J5 ]6 \: h7 o0 u8 H9 u
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Efficiency;
* c7 P& e" Q9 z$ t9 |– Age of Receivables, J6 n6 V) g1 w5 q9 j. n: n
Accounts Receivabl = # Days
7 K; c. q4 j3 _: h (Sales / 365)
% R+ [# l1 ^' s/ c' {• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$# V4 T7 p/ P6 V' M7 q/ j
( r+ O8 G' W N9 [- i
– Age Of Payables$ ]" }3 t& }* U+ c! A
Accounts Payable = # Days
2 V$ Z* G3 j3 Y, |(Purchases* / 365)9 X) o5 C. a: @4 D
• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills
& Q; s# F9 m4 E" {
* A. K- |/ d* s. d, K* O– Age of Inventory
5 K: A! w, b4 f$ O b, X Inventory = # Days
( O) S# x0 w8 [0 }: Z, l. ~; M. N' z7 s(COGS / 365)8 J, v% }+ z+ u: ~- Y& r
• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse
6 N% n/ w- u3 h4 h6 ~. S& K9 U3 W2 a" d
• Growth;- y) ?2 ]2 E3 j+ j. y9 j
– Sales1 _* |' o' K' L3 X" a2 h5 T
– Net Income
! k+ M# ~8 \& g; R– Total Assets
" S, K; \7 x, [4 _( D) i* h4 M9 x– Equity7 K; F+ r- G6 @0 Y
Yr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %1 j/ R" I& H, ~) r3 j
Yr. 1
; K6 B/ S( D+ h7 G4 y# o) v• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company)
5 [; Y$ d5 r* O' L5 j
) ^4 n2 w6 b5 b) y, p0 }$ u' _Understanding Ratios' z4 I6 n) E; `. e+ V
• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”
1 _4 Q/ p+ {) s• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio4 d- \7 @ D8 w2 ^8 q# w
• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”3 i- o9 D% b4 K6 h" m3 y% a7 h: v
– Which number caused the change?
* F; |, k" W* a+ {– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time./ r) A/ F: `* t
– Will these trends continue?% Q: ]3 R" S% J* ^1 G1 U) k$ o x
– How does the company compare to the industry?* f" f4 K% F+ E
8 z- k3 c0 T' r
, M# ^( c d m! z; v0 u2 D, UClassifying Costs* b3 Q6 T$ m& `% P! Q, t8 a* h( r
• Variable Costs: K6 W7 @4 ?4 Z6 G$ A5 M
– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume); [: M) o& e. Z3 w# Y' o
• Fixed Costs
. o, x, @1 m6 J" y5 w– cost that does not vary with volume |
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