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- 2006-3-26
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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。+ G! y, b! \! n6 X3 |3 f+ ?2 \
( a s, u; H: U) \1 }
GM Overview
% P) C. {# ~8 C1 r. O• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs
# P4 P, a, u; h8 a+ R( Z) X9 b+ W• Objectives7 T' I* R0 ?# d8 X: G
– What do we “WANT” to do?
6 j4 g9 x$ A7 B; N" G# @$ J• External Analysis
; z6 r0 {# G9 @, H/ ~. @– What do we “NEED” to do? O7 j7 }8 Q$ r3 R4 l7 E
– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade
0 A( l1 c( M; n" e; Z# g9 a0 O• opportunities & threats
9 o: r) |4 w3 \' j. I% j, t L– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs- ^6 r5 ^* w( A- C' n
• Internal Analysis. ~. Q/ P: H8 {1 t' L8 V! i
– What “CAN” we do?
: u. D& ^3 d/ m! T! R. _( T* l– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR
$ E) l+ G; M, `; a• abilities, strengths & weaknesses/ O0 e+ J7 }3 H- z
– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES
# W9 p; e* c5 i0 C7 U3 Y- F8 N9 ?2 `5 }- A# k8 u @
• Alternative Evaluation8 j$ }$ _" {9 l: ~1 Y4 F3 V
– What are the options?2 ]# |& N( h) S
– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options
- _' a; c, C' |5 y, A1 F– How does this option “FIT”?, b& v: N" ]0 c; N: F
– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)
; y! {7 V! r( ]2 Y0 X B9 ?5 B& i– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”) + D! }& C$ K8 Z @( E
5 @8 P( _% E6 `+ i/ }$ u: P• Decision" L) A& J9 f D
– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).$ a3 a2 s) M+ @! ~2 ]
– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING4 u7 o8 b% U' \. T: v% C& L
• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?
U2 m- {0 ?, t2 v7 Q• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?
" y- u- z5 f3 c z% F• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?0 T9 ^5 G: j; c
• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)$ o0 Y7 e) i# J( O
• Why NOT the other options?/ J b: B( Q2 z5 }$ Z
• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes% W+ ]% X' n2 j: @9 M
need to be made?
$ \$ [8 D4 c- M% X; f! d$ t- o/ o0 [) `% u
• Action Plan
n7 K2 x$ e4 G• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;
. I1 F+ |5 _, @ c0 J% t4 W4 M– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your
8 V/ g, ?4 F% \8 H% [decision1 v' l1 c F- X1 C
– details about timing
1 F g2 ]- H F, j y) _– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’
4 V& T3 @5 E% c( X: h– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)5 |" {, {9 m5 Z. Z( M' b1 M8 r, v
– make sure to consider both the short term and long term1 e. Z" x4 X$ h0 |( n
, H( Z Y" K2 OFirm Valuation
# ~/ ]9 Z; Q5 |: e• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.$ \) Q7 x+ o2 P( g. M
• 3 methods of valuing a firm; o9 _7 b: v6 P' v
– Net Book Value: k& T( m/ g" P5 ]
– Economic Appraisal4 ~# e- T4 J8 R4 }4 \8 H
– Capitalization of Earnings8 y$ J p" I5 e6 G' ]7 X9 H- m
• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the$ D8 B; G+ t( w; Z& F
company is worth.
4 Q- W* a4 x5 M g4 Z/ P, g• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???
+ T+ u: |9 K3 e3 [# U/ I3 [# k! D- Y
Net Book Value (NBV)
$ k" f% K" V+ |4 C2 _3 K3 n: D6 F– Total Assets - Total Liabilities
( g" K& u7 ?( m) B/ R$ a) p0 s• a.k.a.. the equity
4 M. b! R# ?' F; A1 ?( Q– Does not account for the present market value of the assets& q1 ?) ^% {* ?& c$ n. m$ b
– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet+ \' J, g- y! V" @
– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business8 Z. U. ]8 x+ n# [
( `2 v6 \) I5 l6 @, S+ V
Economic Appraisal (EA)
; y* Y6 \1 u3 r, `# V, s) |2 F– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets# G- M5 Y4 G3 C. G% b
– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities
# i6 Y+ B6 Z$ L0 O8 n( l3 e9 g– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets
# J) |: N# T" `# D: Z, A8 |. m* @ T% l; N* M
Capitalization of Earnings (CE)
1 V% ?0 \$ D$ U) G8 u– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S" b4 y7 Q) t3 r
• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.
* X$ O( b h; c5 ^$ S2 Y1 M– NPAT * P/E ratio = value
4 Y" }8 T" i' V; C) c– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)
4 [# h2 n* h3 w, I3 [6 R• Assuming changes (projected statement)7 ?/ z; u# K- T/ f$ f7 ~
• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)% M2 j# R: q' Z7 ^1 p3 L8 V
– Select a reasonable P/E multiple
* g# x5 v& Q8 j( f' z( k8 i' o– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management); F7 R5 }% w Y" G( d
# m4 i" v y5 h8 D1 D
• P/E Multiple6 f& E' c3 T$ ?9 c
– Rules of thumb;
+ r% Z8 o) R( ?• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples* `9 ^" P3 B& O: Q0 R) P c
from 5 to 15.) }0 t( v6 A6 }; c/ y$ K
• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.
9 i, G3 `, P& X' K" C• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”
R* z% L j7 C/ [– growth increases a multiple
/ @& e9 r: W, k6 v7 ?% ]: {– risk decreases a multiple
# x* Z7 u# L4 ~- L3 w Y9 G$ f5 R
Their Associated Ratios4 q3 e* V3 {" m
• Profitability; ^ J' K! X; Z! K' m ]( ^$ n
– Business goal - to make $$
; C: J) x( W! B- n# p$ R– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales
( P& `8 i6 L; o' \" h3 b& a& @• Stability;
* {* ~/ g7 _# k6 K% H# P0 w– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)
2 w" n% {+ T9 b4 X– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts
3 o( K/ r; y& [% Y# b0 @$ v. z0 S( p- ?. S3 l" I: ]. A
5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios0 j$ {' A# n: @, p5 z
• Liquidity;
+ Q1 M( O2 b1 }* p/ L- d– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations
5 @, M/ K; m$ F8 Y9 ?* b– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm
: B2 G7 t2 b z5 s; e2 gobligations)
5 H( h( u; G; u7 U% O• Efficiency;. c4 B, S4 q0 g. c
– Business goal - to efficiently use assets/ N1 s/ w4 O& x [# |: P! J$ D
– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments
* f' M* ^& A5 ]5 n0 I5 ]% z# J; J# o! B6 Z5 V2 v. j1 l- p
• Growth;9 f3 v \6 G' U( D' _
– Business goal - to increase in size
; ]! u! l) d, `, {6 h( R2 l1 A– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth' x' n) k+ \2 o& F% B7 I. S8 [; n
/ y. l, L; Z; cInterpreting the Ratios. a" Y4 g1 F0 L+ p7 f, S3 g
• Profitability; w- Y2 u( K' H: O3 f8 o
– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)
# l% t$ }* @" L- O6 P& yI/S items * 100 = %
( j2 P9 [# y/ r Sales
% S( l) s1 o% d$ {/ ]• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales1 x9 c. d- Z& k9 n) z4 m
– Return on Investment/Equity; o, ^! N3 `. x) Z
Profit ATB4D = % / X8 R! A; q4 m5 a/ }
Average Equity' ?8 y( N! n! N1 Z/ ^
[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2]2 H8 x0 s+ a, H; J! I
• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners
6 M* l5 S( z- U4 ?# Y s: p5 D6 A7 O
. Q/ G, x Y- K• Stability;- m7 q! y" K' S. Q3 Z: g- W
– Net Worth: Total Assets( N: U4 ]% Y$ p! S" ^
Total Equity = % ; @# f5 A) P. q" v+ A
Total Assets
7 I, v3 E1 }- o* ~- P+ [0 C• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money6 ?- G2 W1 t7 N1 }- \
– Debt to Assets, b$ c3 A2 A9 q a a9 [9 S( Q: O
Total Debt = % & x! Y O2 N- o- x
Total Assets0 T- y0 k. j8 Y9 W
• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt0 H0 d" d+ F, O |
– Interest Coverage/ d0 a" b; i+ [4 Y) w
EBIT = # times! E! Z5 O% `0 i; `5 {; z0 y
Interest Expense
' G8 l, v1 O# c: w- ]6 H• tells us how many times we can pay interest
7 ^4 N3 `1 C* v3 q6 u& R# W
/ w- f8 `3 e3 P' _• Liquidity;
) V( W3 s, C# H+ B- ]: y* n" N– Current Ratio
* N9 K8 n* n3 G! v# z, }Current Assets = X:1
- s% @" p! g4 d1 NCurrent Liabilities
, P3 J4 ]2 {: u- Q• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts
$ s8 i4 ~+ t$ z* H' t4 K# SRULE OF THUMB: 2:13 ]2 A# p1 k3 h( _ P
– Acid Test# Z/ y. q5 t- I# Z4 v9 `3 j+ p* y) q
Cash + M/S + A/R = X:1. d9 m- ` T' |; q) F
Current Liabilities. m" }% r; _1 h8 \
• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us
W' j7 k) m% \5 W6 s/ L+ eRULE OF THUMB: 1:16 p$ _1 u' j( u
0 Y. P; v& @; c3 a. l5 t0 V– Working Capital
/ s* I8 i$ ^% q$ p' D6 ?, gC.A - C.L = $X& S i) y( G. J9 o/ f) C4 @3 E, X
• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid
& X# U [4 r9 @% c# o6 R! W
+ B" U8 E6 ~" `4 g2 B- K. |Efficiency;
( N k5 T8 K6 f– Age of Receivables
* M% t) Q' o5 h. O- ~. {( F$ C' CAccounts Receivabl = # Days- s9 y2 B+ Y: T1 J4 U; H) i
(Sales / 365)
' h# c; r8 C* l• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$9 N2 `1 \4 _( R8 `9 B, I
+ s9 P2 M5 @/ ^- D" i9 d
– Age Of Payables
& L6 G( g& u4 X7 c3 T& uAccounts Payable = # Days' X, n' a5 m9 A6 w! p% W- j9 w
(Purchases* / 365)
0 {, W. w% u% e* e. A D' L• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills
* H/ @4 ^9 k$ u5 D& H3 `+ ^; I6 N9 V; k* ~2 w
– Age of Inventory3 F. _: r' }& v s* a5 S
Inventory = # Days
9 Y8 i1 X5 V1 u) A/ _! a(COGS / 365)4 p& ^. @: |; {% {5 s
• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse6 k6 G b7 T) P9 _ K% K' Z
3 O3 x4 S/ z- G2 s- r0 M7 p
• Growth;
' r! O! v# c5 \– Sales
- Z# }/ U! w/ |– Net Income
; @7 a9 @ q5 q; b– Total Assets' }* s2 [- n2 L2 b* s. F6 E
– Equity: D- n B* F0 Y1 n. I8 @2 V
Yr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %' |4 I0 a/ F; v3 q$ i
Yr. 1
7 |3 Z ? }! {) l; k1 s• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company): @4 b" T0 B" N
6 U8 v( ]$ \; Q( ~ {Understanding Ratios7 J3 g( Z: N6 N& U* X
• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”1 L6 l2 z5 c4 {1 `6 k
• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio7 ?* x7 x J& d' N( s6 c0 T
• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”$ C) t' l/ S5 x* e6 h
– Which number caused the change?& d4 I2 m; ^. i f
– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.
( m5 H( v p+ n# [: r8 I) n– Will these trends continue?
. G. z- z4 ^) E2 D5 G# n- U1 X. K8 Q– How does the company compare to the industry?+ w, }0 i) p/ Z/ ~7 \$ w: Z
' z1 {0 x5 q! A0 e' M0 u q% A5 V9 \
8 @1 w! ~1 o4 i" L/ c+ qClassifying Costs
; i, ?' j7 e! d& o) |! {• Variable Costs* x& p6 J) Q3 G% p8 I0 w" d3 O
– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume)
& S7 Z/ p% d9 }0 W• Fixed Costs8 @4 o. I7 F$ ?8 n8 {0 p* N, r1 O
– cost that does not vary with volume |
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